Strategy
Aggressive
60% in stocks, led by a 33% position in US technology. The other 40% is in assets that can rise when stocks fall: mainly commodities, gold, trend following and an anti-beta hedge. Built to keep pace with the S&P 500 and fall less along the way.
Ten years to Oct 15, 2026, after trading costs. Beta: how much the portfolio moves when the S&P 500 moves by 1. The S&P 500 is shown for comparison.
What it holds
Weights are fixed. At the start of every quarter each holding is traded back to its exact target weight.
Technology
33%The growth engine: the technology companies of the S&P 500, from chips to software.
US technology
The growth engine: the technology companies of the S&P 500
Diversifying equities
27%Stocks chosen to behave differently from technology, so that equity returns do not hang on one sector.
US dividend companies
Strong balance sheets, steady dividends, little technology
US health care
Demand that does not follow the economic cycle
S&P 500 equal weight
All 500 companies at the same weight: breadth beyond the largest names
US infrastructure
Owners and builders of rails, grids and pipelines
Bonds and cash
4%Income and stability. Treasuries also cushion a growth scare, though not an inflation shock.
US Treasuries 7–10 years
Gains when growth fears pull yields down; loses in inflation shocks
Treasury bills (cash)
Stability, and funds for rebalancing
Commodities
18%A broad commodity fund and gold: protection against inflation and a weaker dollar.
Broad commodities
Protection when inflation rises
Gold
Protection against a weaker dollar and a loss of trust in policy
Trend and hedges
18%Strategies that can gain while stocks fall: trend following and an anti-beta fund.
Trend following (managed futures)
Gains in long bear markets and inflation shocks; loses in sudden reversals
Anti-beta (market neutral)
Gains when the riskiest stocks fall hardest
Performance
One continuous portfolio since 2007, sliced to the window you pick. Returns count every day of the window, from the close before its first day.
From the Oct 14, 2016 close to the Oct 15, 2026 close · 2,513 trading days. Chart points are weekly closes; statistics use every trading day.
| Total return | Annual return | Volatility | Max drawdown | Sharpe ratio | Turnover a year | Trading costs a year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive | +323.99% | 15.54% | 12.84% | −23.07% | 1.01 | 21% | 0.04% |
| S&P 500 | +324.34% | 15.55% | 17.95% | −33.70% | 0.77 | 0% | 0.00% |
| 60/40 | +154.24% | 9.78% | 10.58% | −21.30% | 0.71 | 15% | 0.03% |
Across horizons
Long histories use monthly data and, before some funds existed, labelled proxies and models (see Methodology).
| 10 years | Since 2008 | 1999–2026 (monthly) | 2000–02 dot-com crash | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | Max drawdown | Return | Max drawdown | Return | Max drawdown | Max drawdown | |
| Aggressive | 15.5% | −23% | 10.4% | −37% | 9.2% | −35% | −35% |
| S&P 500 | 15.5% | −34% | 11.3% | −52% | 8.7% | −51% | −45% |
| 60/40 | 9.8% | −21% | 8.4% | −31% | 7.1% | −29% | −20% |
In sell-offs
Smaller falls than the market, every time
40% of Aggressive is in assets that do not need stocks to rise. Since 2007 the S&P 500 has dropped sharply 13 times.
- 13 of 13
- sell-offs in which Aggressive fell less than the S&P 500
- 64%
- of the S&P 500's combined fall
- −34% vs −55%
- Aggressive against the S&P 500 in the deepest one, 2007–09
The cushion is widest in long bear markets: in 2022 trend following and commodities rose while stocks and bonds fell. It is thinnest in sudden shocks, such as February 2018 and August 2024, when Aggressive fell almost as much as the market. And a fall in technology alone hits it directly: a third of the portfolio is in one sector.
Every fall of 10% or more in the S&P 500
Smaller, recent scares
Change in value, dividends included, between the S&P 500's closing high and closing low in each sell-off. In the 2026 momentum and AI-chip crash the dates are the semiconductor index's high and low.
Compare and test
Put it next to the other strategy, or change the weights yourself in the constructor: the same engine, costs and data.