04 · Full evidence console
No hero line.
Every number.
Switch the fee, mandate, strategy family, rule and history scope. Charts, headline metrics and calendar returns all update together.
How to read it
Holdings first.
Rules second.
Start with a static same-holdings control. Then change only the overlay. This prevents ETF selection, timing and cost from being mixed into one attractive—but uninterpretable—backtest.
Aggressive · Hard gate + brake
Each weak growth ETF moves fully to SGOV at month-end; the same conditional weekly portfolio brake remains active.
Example: 167% means $1.67 million of gross sell-plus-buy notional per year for each $1 million of portfolio NAV—not 1.67 times only the Growth Bucket.
$1 invested · strategy vs SPY
Drawdown depth and recovery
Hard gate + brake · net of 10 bp per side
| year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.3% | -1.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 5.7% |
| 2017 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.0% | -1.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 21.2% |
| 2018 | 4.4% | -2.2% | -1.4% | -0.1% | 2.8% | -1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | -5.1% | -0.2% | -2.4% | -1.7% |
| 2019 | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.2% | -6.8% | 5.9% | 1.5% | -0.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 19.7% |
| 2020 | -0.8% | -5.7% | -4.8% | 1.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | -3.0% | -1.3% | 10.0% | 5.7% | 20.3% |
| 2021 | 0.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | -3.8% | 6.0% | -0.2% | 3.7% | 24.7% |
| 2022 | -3.8% | 0.2% | 3.1% | -3.5% | 0.7% | -2.5% | 1.2% | -0.9% | -2.7% | 4.3% | 2.4% | -1.7% | -3.6% |
| 2023 | 2.1% | -1.8% | 2.7% | -0.7% | 0.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | -1.7% | -3.2% | -1.4% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 10.6% |
| 2024 | 0.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | -2.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.8% | -0.9% | 3.4% | -3.5% | 15.0% |
| 2025 | 1.9% | 0.3% | -0.1% | -1.1% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 2.2% | -0.3% | 0.4% | 16.9% |
| 2026 | 6.1% | 4.0% | -3.8% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 0.7% | -2.2% | 4.0% | — | — | — | — | 23.6% |
2016 begins on 19 July and 2026 ends on 21 August; their annual cells are partial-period compounded returns. Full calendar years are 2017–2025.
Side-by-side evidence
| Version | CAGR | Volatility | Max drawdown | Sharpe vs SGOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Same-holdings static control | 16.71% | 14.83% | -27.11% | 0.96 |
| Conditional volatility brake | 15.01% | 12.34% | -16.82% | 1.01 |
| Soft half gate + brake | 14.92% | 11.71% | -16.69% | 1.05 |
| Hard gate + brake | 14.74% | 10.94% | -16.61% | 1.10 |