Current basket
Mandate-specific multi-ETF basketThe existing diversified growth sleeve. It is the control, not the assumed winner.
10Y net CAGR15.36%Performance control
02 · Return engine
Fewer ETFs?
Only if better.
5 frozen tests
Current basket, QQQ only, one satellite, two satellites and one explicit SOXX sensitivity. The rules were fixed before performance was measured.
The result
Simpler was cleaner.
It was not stronger.
The current specialist basket remained the return winner. QQQ-only reduced complexity and some risk, but gave up return. GRID and BUG did not justify becoming default satellites.
QQQ only
100% QQQ inside the growth budgetTests whether extra theme ETFs add anything after their overlap and trading are counted.
10Y net CAGR14.48%-0.88 pp vs control
QQQ + GRID
80% QQQ · 20% GRIDAdds a real-economy electrification theme without making semiconductors the portfolio thesis.
10Y net CAGR14.33%-1.03 pp vs control
QQQ + two satellites
70% QQQ · 15% GRID · 15% BUGA compact three-fund growth engine with distinct infrastructure and security catalysts.
10Y net CAGR14.16%-1.20 pp vs control
QQQ + SOXX
80% QQQ · 20% SOXXExplicitly measures semiconductor dependence. It is not privileged in the selection process.
10Y net CAGR15.37%+0.01 pp vs control
| Growth structure | CAGR | Volatility | Max drawdown | Gross traded / yr | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current basket | 15.36% | 13.26% | -25.05% | 23.17% | Keep as return control |
| QQQ only | 14.48% | 12.67% | -23.70% | 19.95% | Simplicity challenger |
| QQQ + GRID | 14.33% | 12.56% | -24.47% | 20.02% | Reject as default |
| QQQ + two satellites | 14.16% | 12.45% | -24.26% | 20.53% | Reject as default |
| QQQ + SOXX | 15.37% | 13.23% | -23.95% | 21.23% | Sensitivity only |
Full proxy-spliced history, 10 bp on every dollar bought and sold, quarterly strategic rebalance. The fresh-native test begins from a clean target on 2 May 2022; it reaches the same ranking conclusion and is available in the Research Lab.
The semiconductor question
SOXX nearly tied.
That is exactly why we are cautious.
In Aggressive, QQQ + SOXX produced a 15.37% full-period CAGR versus 15.36% for the current basket. But the result was regime-dependent: weaker before 2023 and strongest after 2022.
Aggressive · pre-202312.33%
QQQ + SOXX CAGR vs 12.60% current
Aggressive · post-202221.04%
QQQ + SOXX CAGR vs 20.50% current
Fresh-native CAGR16.06%
QQQ + SOXX vs 16.16% current
DecisionSensitivity
Not the organizing portfolio thesis
WHAT WE KEEPCurrent basket for performance. QQQ for simplicity.
Investors who prioritize the cleanest story can choose the QQQ-only challenger with a clearly disclosed historical return haircut. Investors pursuing maximum modeled return keep the diversified specialist basket. We do not pretend one choice dominates on every objective.